2021 Valero Texas Open odds: Surprising PGA picks, predictions from model that nailed six majors


Charley Hoffman has been absolutely dominant at the Valero Texas Open over the years. In fact, Hoffman finished on top of the leaderboard in 2016 and he’s earned a runner-up finish twice since 2011, which includes a second-place showing in 2019. History indicates Hoffman could be in the mix again at the 2021 Valero Texas Open, which gets underway from TPC San Antonio on Thursday, April 1.

Hoffman, a four-time PGA Tour champion, is being listed at 30-1 in 2021 Valero Texas Open odds from William Hill Sportsbook. Dustin Johnson, the No. 1 ranked player in the world, is going off as the 7-1 favorite, while Texas native Jordan Spieth is being listed at 14-1 on the PGA odds board. Before locking in any 2021 Valero Texas Open picks or entering any PGA DFS tournaments on sites like DraftKings and FanDuel, be sure to see the golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

SportsLine’s prediction model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been on fire since the return of the PGA Tour last June. In fact, it’s up almost $10,000 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.

At the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in February, McClure nailed Daniel Berger’s win at +1400 in his best bets. McClure was also all over Viktor Hovland’s (+2500) victory in his best bets at the Mayakoba Golf Classic in December. That was one of many huge calls he’s made in the past few months. 

After nailing Sergio Garcia (+5500) finishing on top of the leaderboard at the Sanderson Farms Championship, McClure finished up over $6,200 yet again on his best bets in that tournament. The model had him in the top five from the start and McClure’s best bets included Garcia winning outright. 

He also finished profitable at the U.S. Open, nailing two of his best bets, including a +1100 top-five bet on Matthew Wolff. In all, the advanced computer model has nailed a whopping six majors entering the weekend. Anyone who has followed its golf picks has seen massive returns. 

Now that the 2021 Valero Texas Open field is locked, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.

The model’s top 2021 Valero Texas Open predictions 

One huge shocker the model is calling for at the Valero Texas Open 2021: Jordan Spieth, an 11-time PGA Tour champion and one of the top Vegas favorites, stumbles and barely cracks the top 10. The 27-year-old has seen a major resurgence in recent weeks, finishing inside the top-15 in four of his last five starts. He’s finished inside the top-five in three of those events, but he’s been unable to capture his 12th PGA Tour title. 

Spieth’s inability to finish on top of the leaderboard can be directly attributed to his driving accuracy percentage. In fact, Spieth enters this week’s event ranked 204th on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy percentage (50.00), which doesn’t bode well for his chances to finish on top of the leaderboard this week. Plus, Spieth has not won a PGA Tour event since 2017. He’s not a strong pick to win it all and there are far better values in the Valero Texas Open 2021 field.

Another surprise: Abraham Ancer, a 25-1 long shot, makes a strong run at the title. Ancer has a much better chance to win it all than his odds imply, so he’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday.

Ancer doesn’t explode off the tee quite as much as some of the other top contenders, but he enters this week’s event ranked second in driving accuracy percentage (72.56). Ancer also ranks 14th in greens in regulation percentage (71.21), which has helped him rack up 195 birdies in 44 rounds this season. The 30-year-old has finished inside the top-20 in six of his last nine starts, making him a solid choice for 2021 Valero Texas Open bets this week.

How to make 2021 Valero Texas Open picks

Also, the model is targeting four other golfers with odds of 25-1 or higher to make a strong run at the title, including a monster long shot north of 50-1. Anyone who backs these underdogs could hit it big. You can only see them here.

So who wins the Valero Texas Open 2021? And which long shots stun the golfing world? Check out the odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected 2021 Valero Texas Open leaderboard, all from the model that’s nailed six golf majors and is up almost $10,000 since the restart, and find out. 

2021 Valero Texas Open odds (via William Hill)

Dustin Johnson 7-1
Jordan Spieth 14-1
Scottie Scheffler 18-1
Tony Finau 18-1
Hideki Matsuyama 22-1
Corey Conners 25-1
Abraham Ancer 25-1
Charley Hoffman 30-1
Brendan Steele 30-1
Ryan Palmer 33-1
Cameron Tringale 35-1
Chris Kirk 40-1
Matt Kuchar 40-1
Si-Woo Kim 40-1
Cameron Davis 50-1
Keegan Bradley 50-1
Sam Burns 50-1
Zach Johnson 55-1
Lanto Griffin 55-1
Ryan Moore 60-1
Joel Dahmen 60-1
Rickie Fowler 60-1
Aaron Wise 66-1
Andrew Putnam 66-1
Charles Howell 66-1
Harold Varner 66-1
Adam Hadwin 66-1
Byeong Hun An 66-1
Branden Grace 66-1
Denny McCarthy 70-1
Gary Woodland 70-1
Matt Wallace 70-1
Phil Mickelson 70-1
Danny Willett 70-1
Jhonattan Vegas 80-1
Matthew NeSmith 80-1
John Huh 80-1
Erik Van Rooyen 80-1
Doug Ghim 80-1
Sebastian Munoz 80-1
Sam Ryder 80-1
Lucas Glover 90-1
Adam Long 90-1
Harry Higgs 90-1
Tom Hoge 100-1
Russell Knox 100-1
Patton Kizzire 100-1
Martin Laird 100-1
Kyoung-Hoon Lee 100-1
Sepp Straka 100-1

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